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Home > Archives > Volume 20, No 8 (2022) > Article

DOI: 10.14704/nq.2022.20.8.NQ44689

Geographic distribution of cocoa cultivation: Multicriteria analysis based on agroclimatic and biophysical parameters

Pedro Lozano-Mendoza, Betty Beatriz González- Osorio, Narcisa Puente-Monar, Luis Fernando Simba Ochoa


The cultivation of cocoa (Theobroma cacao.L.) is an important base for the economy of many Ecuadorian families; however, the effects of climate change on the crop are becoming more noticeable, negatively affecting production and the reduction of agricultural soils. For this reason, the objective of the study was to determine the geographic distribution of cocoa cultivation through multicriteria analysis based on agroclimatic and biophysical parameters. Farmers' perception was measured through 12 questions using the Likert scale, which were treated by internal consistency analysis (Cronbach's alpha) considering a reliability greater than 0.70. The modeling of agroecological zoning in the period 2041-2060 of cocoa cultivation was carried out with a Geographic Information System (GIS) software under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) of climate change, using agroclimatic parameters (temperature, precipitation and altitude) and biophysical parameters (slope, soil texture, depth, hydrogen potential, natural drainage, organic matter and fertility level). The results indicate that 36% of cocoa farmers reported that rainfall causes an increase in pests and diseases in their plantations. The SSP1 scenario for the period 2041-2060 is favorable for the crop, due to agroclimatic conditions whose temperature is 25 to 26 °C, while the SSP5 scenario corresponds to moderate zones with 62%, i.e., the more natural resources are consumed, the less agricultural areas are available, making the soil vulnerable for agricultural activity.


Climate change, climate variability, scenarios, zoning, agro-ecological requirements.

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